Archive for March, 2008

Mar 29th 2008 John McCallum

Some thoughts for executives on how to use an economic forecast: First, the economy involves myriad variables and interrelationships of varying measurability and complexity. Not every business depends for its prosperity on the same variables and relationships. Executives should know the key economic drivers of their business and focus on forecasting them. Having said that, economic growth is big for almost everyone; a rising tide does lift all boats.

Second, no economic forecast will ever get everything even close to right, so the wise executive focuses on directional tendencies and worst case/best case scenarios.

Third, not all economic forecasters are equal. Some actually do have better records than others. Executives should spend some time discerning who really is good at forecasting what matters to them.

Fourth, economic forecasters are not the only source of knowledge on where the economy is going. Statistics Canada, industry associations etc. compile data and do studies that can be very helpful. Within organizations, things like order books, customer intention surveys and supplier intelligence may provide hints on the future. Executives sometimes forget that their organization and its relationships can be a goldmine of information on the future.
John McCallum

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Economics and Future

Mar 29th 2008 John McCallum

What makes economic forecasting so difficult is that, ultimately, it is a call on the behavior of people. It is the willingness or not of consumers to spend, executives to invest and create jobs, savers and money managers to buy stocks and bonds and so on that determines the direction of everything that matters about the economy. Unfortunately for the economic forecaster, behavior is driven by things like feelings, attitudes and fashions, things that can change on a dime. Confidence and fear are the big ones. When people are confident they behave in ways that tend to have good economic outcomes. Fear brings out the worst in us. That people can go from supreme confidence to blind fear and back seemingly instantly will always be the economic forecaster’s curse.
John McCallum

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Economics and Future

Mar 27th 2008 William McKnight

As our business grows, it becomes increasingly necessary to delegate responsibility and to encourage men and women to exercise their initiative. This requires considerable tolerance. …Mistakes will be made. But if a person is essentially right, the mistakes he or she makes are not as serious in the long run as the mistakes management will make if it undertakes to tell those in authority exactly how they must do their jobs.
William McKnight

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Delegation and Human Resources and Management

Mar 25th 2008 Michael E. Raynor

Highly differentiated strategies, either low cost or product leadership, offer the promise of high returns, but only because they run higher strategic risk. Staking a defensible claim to a unique competitive position demands bold commitments over long periods of time to assets and capabilities that few others feel will be valuable in the future. In other words, greatness requires that companies make a significant, and largely irreversible, strategic bet. And like all bets, even when the odds are with you, you can end up losing (nearly) everything.

It is this kinship between success and failure that defines the “strategy paradox”: precisely the same behaviors that maximize an organization’s possibility of great success also maximize its likelihood of total catastrophe.
Michael E. Raynor

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Risk and Strategy

Mar 23rd 2008 Kurt Lewin

You do not really understand an organization until you try to change it.
Kurt Lewin

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Change Management and Organizational Behavior

Mar 23rd 2008 Edgar H Schein

The degree to which individuals are subject to outside influences is a function of their freedom to move, which in the case of career influences, depends very much on the labor market. In the study of coercive persuasion I learned how powerful the group can be. But in an open society I learned that individuals are equally powerful, if they can choose their own settings.
Edgar H Schein

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Organizational Behavior and Personality / Behavior

Mar 23rd 2008 Edgar H Schein

Change must be distinguished from “new learning” in that it implies some unlearning that is intrinsically difficult and often painful. Motivation to change does not arise until the change target feels secure enough to accept the disconfirming data. The change target feels “psychologically safe” if he or she can accept a new attitude or value without complete loss of self.

Once the individual feels safe, he or she can accept new information either through identification with others or by scanning the environment for new solutions. The more ambiguous the situation, the more the individual will rely on the judgments of others. New concepts and standards will not survive unless they are socially and personally reinforced.
Edgar H Schein

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Change Management and Organizational Behavior

Mar 20th 2008 Ulrich Thielemann and Thorsten Busch

Profit is a legitimate goal; maximizing profit is not. If it does that, it simply ignores the legitimate claims of all those who do not possess the power to affect its profitability. This would be a breach of the moral principle.
Ulrich Thielemann and Thorsten Busch

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Ethics and Social Responsibility

Mar 20th 2008 Michael Hoffman and Robert E McNulty

On what basis can we say that bribery is “wrong” or “unethical”? The immorality can be seen in the manner in which it is conducted. First, bribery is done in secret, not because it involves a trade secret, but because it is recognized as violating the explicit and implicit terms of a transaction. As such, bribery is a form of deception used to gain unfair advantage over those who act according to the norms understood to govern transactions.

If bribery were simply a cost of doing business, then the cost of the bribe ought to be stated clearly and openly in the contract. It is not done so because bribes are universally understood to be unfair and dishonest, and hence unethical.
Michael Hoffman and Robert E McNulty

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Ethics

Mar 18th 2008 John H. Fleming and Jim Asplund

In hiring and managing individual employees, it’s important to understand what is difficult to change (talent) and what is more easily changed or acquired (knowledge and skills). Once you hire someone, you are largely stuck with their talents, whereas you can still impart new skills and knowledge. Without a clear understanding of these two different aspects of ability, you will have an incomplete picture of how talents play into hiring decisions and could become more prone to making hiring errors.
John H. Fleming and Jim Asplund

No Comments » Posted by Administrator / Human Resources and Knowledge and Management and Personal Development and Training & Development